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Investor Insights Blog|Navigating Opportunities in the 2024 Real Estate Market: A Promising Outlook for Self-Directed IRA Investors

Real Estate

Navigating Opportunities in the 2024 Real Estate Market: A Promising Outlook for Self-Directed IRA Investors

real estate market outlook

The following was written by guest blogger James P. Schlimmer, CEO of Equity Real Estate Services, an Equity Trust affiliate.

James Schlimmer
James P. Schlimmer

Introduction

As I explore the dynamics that have shaped the real estate market, I also look ahead to what 2024 and 2025 might hold. My analysis, supported by reputable data, paints a vivid picture of a market that has weathered recent turbulence and is set to soar to new heights. The resilience of the real estate market is demonstrated by its ability to rebound from the throes of uncertainty.

The foundation: Resilience in the face of economic shifts

To understand the optimistic outlook for the real estate market in 2024, we must delve into the economic factors that have been driving it. In the third quarter of 2023, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exhibited a positive upswing, a positive sign that hints at a market in recovery mode .1

This recovery follows the model presented by UCLA professor Edward Leamer in his white paper titled “Housing is the Business Cycle”.2 Leamer’s work substantiates that the residential contribution to the U.S. GDP can predict economic shifts, with an approximate 8-month lag, allowing us to anticipate and navigate market conditions.

The mortgage rate conundrum: Balancing act and its effects

A key driver of the real estate market is the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, intricately tied to the yields on 10-year bonds. As of November 30, 2023, this rate stood at 7.22 percent, showing a notable rise from the 6.48 percent recorded in January of the same year.3

The higher mortgage rates dampen homebuyer enthusiasm, as the cost of loans becomes increasingly expensive. This phenomenon is evident in the numbers of existing home sales, which have witnessed a noticeable decrease throughout 2023.4 According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales have dipped below 4 million homes, falling to 3.79 million as of the October 2023 update.4

The impending 2024 presidential election brings a twist in the tale, as the Federal Reserve, at the behest of the Biden administration, could pivot to lower interest rates in late Spring 2024. This pivot would likely alleviate the mortgage rate burden and rekindle interest in real estate investments.3

[Related: Self-Directed Real Estate Market Report]

Quantitative easing and the possible impact on the housing market

As of November 2023, the United States finds itself in a unique situation, concurrently providing aid in two major international conflicts, including the conflict in Ukraine versus Russia and its involvement in the Middle East on behalf of Israel, as well as the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 totaling $1.7 trillion.5 As such, elected officials may think it’s necessary reverse course on quantitative tightening to counter inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to monetize the U.S. debt to prevent economic failure.

Historically, during times of economic stress, elected officials look closely at two options: 1. Let the economy fail so it can purge itself from its sickness; or 2. Monetize the debt (print money).6 It’s possible that this move will unfold during the 2024 election year, with global conflicts serving as a cloak for excessive government spending.

During times of quantitative easing, equities tend to rise, and interest rates decrease. One possible outcome of these changes is existing home sale numbers crossing the 4 million mark in 2024.

Listing inventory dynamics: Unveiling the reality

As of October 2023, the housing inventory numbers showed 737,480 listings.7 It is essential to recognize that this phenomenon is not driven by fewer sellers, but by fewer buyers. For instance, in Naples, Florida, there are four homes listed for sale on a single street, the highest number seen in three years. As we move into 2024, we may see listing inventory numbers to continue to rise, providing opportunities for astute investors.7

Short-term rentals and the market landscape

The short-term rental market, which witnessed a surge in recent years, is also facing a transformation. AirDNA forecasts that there will be 1,450,325 short-term rental listings in 2024.8 If even 20 percent of these property owners decide to exit the short-term rental market and instead list their properties for sale, there could be an influx of nearly 300,000 listings. This shift could potentially bring the market back to pre-pandemic listing numbers.8

[Related: Turning Your Investment Property into a Short-Term Rental]

The rental market surge

An interesting development is the rise in renters. As of Q3 2023, there were over 44 million renter-occupied homes in the U.S., indicating a growing pool of potential tenants.9 The rental market is experiencing a surge, offering an alternative avenue for investors to explore.

[Related: How Real Estate Investors Can Reach Their Goals Faster]

Conclusion

The real estate market in 2024 is laden with opportunities for self-directed IRA investors. The data-driven analysis presented here paints a rosy picture, backed by economic indicators and market dynamics. The ability to anticipate market trends, combined with the imminent changes in interest rates and inventory dynamics, provides investors with the tools to make informed decisions.

As we venture into 2024, investors may find potential for significant returns on real estate investments. To seize these opportunities and make the most of your self-directed IRA, we invite you to visit IRA Title Pro for expert guidance and support. Together, we can navigate the complexities of the real estate market and unlock the doors to a prosperous future.

About James P. Schlimmer

James P. Schlimmer is the CEO of Equity Real Estate Services and the President of IRA Title Pro. Renowned as a pioneer in the real estate industry, Schlimmer has been paving the way for innovation in a field that has been stagnant and overly complicated for far too long. For nearly a decade, Schlimmer has worked diligently, assisting buyers and sellers by revolutionizing the closing process with a more modern, seamless approach.

About IRA Title Pro

IRA Title Pro is a real estate closing company specializing in IRA-funded transactions, providing a quick and seamless process compared to traditional closing companies that may not have the experience needed for a streamlined IRA real estate closing.

IRA Title Pro is powered by Investors United Title, who is an affiliate of Equity Trust Company through common ownership. Neither company is an agent of one another. Equity Trust Company is a directed custodian and makes no recommendations or representations as to IRA Title Pro and any information communicated by Equity Trust Company is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Clients are in no way obligated to purchase services from IRA Title Pro and are free to purchase such services from any title company as they deem appropriate. No customer may rely on any statement made by Equity Trust or any of its officers, directors, employees, or agents for any decisions regarding the use of the service offered by IRA Title Pro. Whenever making a decision related to your account, please consult with your tax, financial, or legal professional.

Sources
1. Bureau of Economic Analysis – Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 2023
2. National Bureau of Economic Research – “Housing is the Business Cycle” by Edward Leamer
3. FRED – 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
4. National Association of Realtors – Existing Home Sales
5. Congressional Budget Office – Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2023
6. The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio
7. FRED – Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States
8. AirDNA – Industry Report
9. FRED – Occupied Housing Units: Renter Occupied


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