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By John Bowens – National Education Specialist, Equity Trust Company
With the stock market suffering severe losses, the S&P 500 down 20 percent year-to-date, and the DJIA down 15 percent, investors are forced to examine their asset allocation in both their retirement accounts and taxable portfolios. Although the stock market does not represent the overall economy and vice versa, the future of your investment portfolio performance can be heavily weighted on the health and strength of the economy and financial markets.
Are we in a recession?
Unfortunately, we often don’t realize we are in a recession until we are in the middle of it. The Great Recession started in December of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. On December 21, 2007, the S&P 500 chart read 1,484; it bottomed at 683 on March 29, 2009.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was +6.9 percent in Q4 of 2021 and -1.6 percent in Q1 of 2022. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports inflation as of May 2022 at 8.6 percent, with energy and food leading the pack at 34.6 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively.
These indicators and others potentially make the argument that the U.S. is either in or heading toward a recession. Moreover, many are worried about stagflation, which is when an economy experiences high unemployment and slow economic growth, along with rising prices and a decline in GDP. From the data shown above, could one infer we are entering stagflation?
Recessions and corrections are very difficult to predict, even by the savviest financial analysts. Instead of trying to guess what the future holds, we should reframe our thinking and instead ask, “What can we do to protect our savings? Is putting all our retirement account funds in the traditional financial markets truly considered diversification?”
Diversification options
With all this news and data, what can investors consider to safeguard themselves from the impacts of a recession and stagflation? Real estate is an asset class used by some of the wealthiest as a hedge against inflation and stock market volatility. Private equity investing can allow an investor to participate in the private markets, which may have little to no correlation to the traditional financial markets. Gold can serve as a hedge against inflation and, at times, a growth opportunity.
Some may challenge the notion that real estate is a safe-haven asset class, given the prices are at all-time highs. However, Warren Buffet’s saying may ring true: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
In May of 2022, home prices were up 14.7 percent year-over-year, but the number of homes sold was down 6.8 percent. At the same time, 11.8 percent of homes had a price reduction, up nearly 5 percent from the prior year. Rent prices in May 2022 were up more than 15 percent year over year. For buy-and-hold rental property investors, conditions favor a long-term strategy of long-term cash flow and future appreciation.
